There's the game everyone sees.
Then there's everything behind it.
The rules behind the record
The line we publish. The full slate we track. The sizing behind every pick. Here’s how we keep our process in the open.
Every result is tied to the exact price at the moment we publish. We shop across books, because a half point can turn a win into a push, or a push into a loss.
The published number is the reference point. Prices can differ between books and move after publication, so a different line can produce a different outcome.
The right price matters as much as the pick.
Our record counts every pick we publish. Wins and losses. Popular teams and unpopular calls. No handpicked hot streaks — the full slate is the number that counts.
The aggregate describes the complete published slate. A selected subset of picks has its own results and should not be presented as the full-card record.
Every call. Every result. Out in the open.
The stake is part of the call. When conviction changes, our published size can move from 1 unit to 1.5. That sizing is included in the record alongside the pick and the price.
A flat-stake calculation tells a different story from a record that uses varying sizes. Our published results include the price and size attached to each pick.
Our process is public. Your decisions are yours.
The Wall / Explore the math
The price sets the hurdle. Move the win rate and see what changes across the same 100 bets.
Wins Losses · fractional tile shows tenths
+8.8% return on the total amount staked.
Arithmetic at the selected price, not a projection or actual betting sequence. Assumes 100 decided bets, one unit risked on each, and identical odds. Pushes excluded. Orion’s actual record includes varied prices and stake sizes.
57% overall is rounded for this comparison. NFL: 68%. Historical figures do not guarantee future results.
Check the actual recordThe edge is in the decision
A half point on the line. A different price. A change in stake size. Each changes the arithmetic. Our process pairs an ex-Vegas oddsmaker’s experience with an AI model, then publishes the pick, the line, the price, and the size.